Intelligence Briefing

The Saudi Coffee Boom Is Measuring the Wrong Thing

Saudi Arabia is building one of the largest coffee markets on earth. It is counting almost everything except the thing that decides who wins.

By the Verbatim Team · Published 7 June 2026 · 8 min read

Key takeaways

  • The cafe sector is worth $6.14 billion. There are 5,130 branded outlets and Saudis drink 36 million cups a day. This is one of the biggest coffee markets on the planet.
  • Every major brand is racing to open doors. Barn's has 900+ stores and a $500 million IPO. Kyan wants to go from 312 to 700 outlets in a single year.
  • Three forces are building underneath the boom: 18% bean-price inflation, a tightening labour market and a $2.98 billion delivery market growing at 18.4% a year.
  • Homegrown brands hold a structural advantage that international chains cannot copy.
  • We read 245,271 customer reviews across 13 brands. The leaderboard the market believes in is wrong. This series shows why.

The market is bigger than almost anyone says

Most people picture Saudi coffee as Starbucks and a tray of Arabic gahwa. They undercount it badly. The cafe sector was worth $6.14 billion in 2024. It is growing at 8.23% a year and is on track for nearly $10 billion by 2030. The Kingdom has 5,130 branded coffee outlets. That is 46% of every branded coffee shop in the Middle East and North Africa.

Everyone is racing to open doors

The dominant story in Saudi coffee is velocity. Who opens the most stores, raises the most capital and plants the most flags. Barn's, the largest homegrown chain, has passed 900 outlets. It is going public on Tadawul in a listing targeting up to $500 million at roughly a $2.5 billion valuation. Kyan, already the sixth-largest branded chain in the Middle East, announced a target of 700 branches from 312.

Three forces are building under the boom

Everyone sees the tailwinds. Few are pricing the headwinds. Three forces will decide which brands are still standing in five years: bean-price inflation at 18%, a tightening labour market from Saudization, and a delivery market worth $2.98 billion growing at 18.4% a year.

The advantage that cannot be bought

There is a deeper divide in this market, and it shows up in no press release. Local chains read the culture better. The Starbucks boycott tied to the Gaza conflict pushed Alshaya to lay off 2,000 people and shelve a planned stake sale. Homegrown brands carry no geopolitical tail risk. That is a moat scale cannot build.

The metric nobody is tracking

Stores, capital, geography. Every headline metric in Saudi coffee measures the supply side. They tell you who is spending the most. They say nothing about who customers actually prefer. We analysed 245,271 customer reviews across 13 Saudi coffee brands. The picture under the averages does not match the leaderboard the market assumes.

FAQ

How big is the Saudi coffee market?

The Saudi cafe sector was worth about $6.14 billion in 2024 and is growing at 8.23% a year. There are 5,130 branded outlets, which is 46% of all branded coffee shops in MENA.

Who is leading the Saudi coffee expansion?

Barn's with 900+ outlets and a $500 million IPO is the largest homegrown chain. Kyan is targeting 700 branches from 312. Starbucks, Dunkin' (800 outlets), and Tim Hortons are expanding aggressively, but the fastest growth is from domestic brands.

Why do homegrown Saudi coffee brands have an edge?

Cultural attunement that international chains cannot replicate, no geopolitical tail risk, and strength in the fastest-growing segment: specialty coffee, growing near double the base market.